Paul Mendoza

It’s that time again! The best night of the year! It has been a good year for movies. The nominated films are all high caliber. Predicting the winners becomes easier now that we’ve seen how Awards season has played out.  There are some seemingly sure things but as we all know there are always a few surprises.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

After I saw Lady Bird I was sure that Laurie Metcalfe would win this one but all the momentum has gone Allison Janney’s way. She looks like a sure thing but keep an eye on Metcalf.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sam Rockwell looks to be a shoo in! But if he doesn’t win and it goes to Jenkins it will signal a Shape of Water sweep.

Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound

This is a tough one. Sorkin is a great writer and well liked. I’m going with him but keep an eye on Mudbound.

Original Screenplay
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This could be the hardest one to pick. This would be the perfect chance to honor Get Out or Lady Bird and that might happen but Three Billboards was my favorite film of the year and McDonagh wrote a brilliant script.

Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

McDormand should win. Soars Ronan is the dark horse though.

Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Gary Oldman stars as Winston Churchill in director Joe Wright’s DARKEST HOUR, a Focus Features release.

Oldman is a sure thing. That’s all.

Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner: 2049
Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water

Roger Deakins has been nominated 14 times and has never won an Oscar. That will change on Sunday.

Film Editing
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I always had a theory that the film that won Best Editing goes on to win best Film. It hasn’t held up well lately. I’m going with Shape Of Water.

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water

Guillermo del Toro ids going to win this.

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This could go any number of ways. Just think about last year. Is it La La Land or Moonlight? Thankfully, Warren Baetty and Faye Dunaway will be back to announce best Picture again! This time they will get it right! I hope! And the winner is……Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri!

Enjoy the show and good luck in your Oscar pools!